Bitdeer Update - It signed a co-location deal with ?

Despite the stock down 7%, it is a step in the right direction.

Bitdeer announced it signed a co-location deal in Norway. BUT the deal is subject to final close.

Here is the exact wording: " The Lease has not yet become effective and remains subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent beyond Bitdeer's control, including the completion of certain external customer and supplier arrangements by the counterparty. There is no assurance that such conditions will be satisfied, or that the Lease will become effective."

Stock was down 7%. Why ? Market didn't like the uncertainty. Or maybe the market doesn't like the "tenant".... Suspect not Google, Amazon, or Microsoft.... Likely the other one or two names.

Still.... It is an important development for a few reasons:

1. The agreement is "executed" i.e. both parties have signed. The counter party would presumably have been talking to its customers along the way before signing the deal. Likely the counter party didn't close its side of the deal in time. But for some reason, it felt the urgency to sign the lease regardless. Also Bitdeer mentioned previously it was talking to others beside its main negotiation. It is probable the deal will close.

2. Because the lease is "executed", if it doesn't go through, there could be break fees involved (my speculation). Also note that Bitdeer repeatedly mentioned that its commercial terms will be competitive vs. other leases out there.

3. Now that Bitdeer has shown it can can close a co-location deal i.e. it knows how to tick the 100s of boxes, its next deal should be quicker as it knows what are the requirements upfront.

4. With the pull back, may be worth adding. Bet is the deal will formally close within a month. BUT after that, it will likely raise capital to fund its next build out.... Real upside will come from when it closes its second deal (likely Rockdale would be my bet or its neocloud).

5. The beauty of the BTDR bet is ALL will be revealed by end of 2027. Rockdale is already energized (and phase 2 up and running by Q1 27). Ohio (subject to the litigation but can have power connected in Q3 26). I have read the legal filings. Not unreasonable to think it can be resolved. The neoclouds will be up and running by Q1/Q2 27. So won't need to wait much longer to see how it pans out. More importantly, looks like 2027 hyperscalers capX will still be trending up... So we will find out.

6. Again... The potential upside.... If it can contract all its power/co-lo, sign up ALL the neocloud GPUs, it can earn EBITDA of $3.2bn a year. To get there, it needs to raise $15bn ($3bn equity + $12bn of debts). Assume it is valued at 15X EV/EBITDA, total EV of $48bn or there about.... We are looking at upside of 4-5X.

Note: Not investment advice. DYOR. I may buy/sell the stock.