What is the upside in gold ? - US$6860 (according to Chris Wood from Jefferies)

It is interesting that I am finding ample opportunities in junior miners in Australia. Some of the junior gold stocks are very interesting in my view.

My base case is as long as the junior gold miners execute their business plan and gold stays around $4-4500, they will prove to be very good investments over next 2-3 years.

On the other hand, there is the secular trade aspect of what if gold price goes higher ? The dollar debasement trade so to speak. The question is what is the upside ? Essentially, everyone is guessing.

Just came across another way to estimate the upside in gold price from Chris Wood of Jefferies. To quote from Chris Wood: "A long-term bullish view is maintained on gold bullion, with the price target now US$6,600/oz. This has been derived by comparing the January 1980 peak gold price of US$850/oz with the increase in US nominal personal disposable income per capita since then. The gold price was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita which was US$8,551. The gold price is now US$4,008/oz or 5.8% of US disposable income per capita of US$69,007 as of May (see following chart). To reach 9.9% of US disposable income per capita means gold should rise to US$6,860/oz."