Some macro charts + US mid term election

A key part of investing is to figure out the positioning and consensus. When it comes to macro overlay, it is a crap shoot most of the time. Yours truly often got it wrong over the years. My experience is 8/9 times out of 10 consensus is right. Put it another way, on balance of probability, it pays to follow the clever people who other people also pay heed to.

A strategist I follow is Michael Hartnett from BofA Securities. Some charts that are of interest (as of Sept 26):

1. Pic 1 is the BofA Bull and Bear Indicator. The market sentiment is currently very much bullish. The party is well past midnight. Often it pays to lighten up when everyone is having a great time.

2. Rolling return of long term US treasuries was -2% in the past 10 years. The worst run for the past 100 years actually. Are we upon the inflection point ? Clearly, a contrarian trade as. at the moment, folks are concerned if rates are going to go higher instead. Guess the interesting angle is the US economy is not doing that great outside of AI.

3. US midterm is coming up. Something to watch out. My base case is republicans will keep the Senate but lose the House. BofA thinks a gridlock is the goldilocks scenario.